Trial Timeline & Delay Analysis
Translate trial slippage into NPV cost.
A structured framework for analyzing trial timelines and delay drivers — for portfolio valuation, BD pricing and operational planning.
"How much timeline risk should we discount this asset for?"
Avg P3 delay 6–12 months. Each month of delay costs measurable NPV. Quantify it and prioritize operational interventions accordingly.
Trial delay is the most under-modeled variable in pharma portfolio strategy. Quantifying delay × NPV per month puts operational interventions in their proper economic context.
What we’re seeing in the data.
Recruitment dominates delay risk
40%+ of trials miss recruitment plan.
ATMP manufacturing causes slips
Cell, gene, ADC trials face capacity-driven delay.
Protocol amendments compound
Each adds weeks; multiple add quarters.
How to think about it.
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01
Map delay distribution
TA, modality, sponsor, geo.
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02
Score per-trial risk
Recruitment, manufacturing, protocol.
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03
Translate to NPV
Delay × NPV per month.
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04
Plan interventions
DCT, AI site selection, adaptive design.
What separates a good answer from a defensible one.
EM faster but regulatory complex.
Active arm risk.
Critical.
Where the signal comes from.
Common questions.
How much does a 6-mo delay cost?
For $1B peak-sales asset, often $50–150M NPV.
Can AI reduce delay?
Yes — site selection and recruitment AI demonstrably cut delays 10–30%.
Want this answered on your data?
We build decision systems on top of analyses like this — so the next question takes minutes, not weeks.
Talk to a strategist